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A year is a long time in Brazilian politics.
When Luiz In谩cio Lula da Silva in January 2023, many about the returning president鈥檚 .
The president, now 78 years old, had recently defeated , the hard-right former president, by a narrow margin 鈥� . But despite that victory, , , remained dominated by followers of Bolsonaro.
Following his electoral loss in 2022, Bolsonaro . He in the traditional passing of the presidential sash during Lula鈥檚 Jan. 1, 2023, inauguration ceremony.
Then a week later, on Jan. 8, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters Brazil鈥檚 presidential palace, Congress and Supreme Court buildings in Bras铆lia, the capital, in an Lula鈥檚 win.
The attempted insurrection failed but nonetheless left a lingering gloom about the state of politics in Brazil.
, the pessimism seems to have been unwarranted.
Political unity
In a recent , 52% of Brazilians said they , while 58% responded that they see the government鈥檚 performance as 鈥渧ery good,鈥� 鈥済ood鈥� or 鈥淥K.鈥� In contrast, 39% described it as 鈥渂ad鈥� or 鈥渧ery bad.鈥�
How has Lula鈥檚 administration managed, at least so far, to beat expectations?
As a , I believe his popularity has a lot to do with what happened on Jan. 8, 2023. The attack in Brasilia has apparently to Lula鈥檚 hold on power. With a police investigation in February 2024 , the former president appears to be in no position to mount a challenge.
At the same time, Lula has kept his largely intact by working with pragmatic members of Congress who don鈥檛 belong to his leftist political party to build and maintain a legislative majority.
The Jan. 8 attack was followed by a in Brazil. Most politicians, including many who supported Bolsonaro鈥檚 reelection, condemned the assault on democracy.
Similarly, a of Brazilians condemned the attack and approved of measures to investigate and prosecute those behind the attempted coup.
Here, too, Lula appears to have played his hand well. Rather than use the opportunity to purge Bolsonaro supporters from key positions in the government, he refrained from installing his own loyalists.
For example, when the governor of the Federal District, Ibaneis Rocha, was suspended over his handling of the unrest, his vice governor 鈥� a .
Bolsonaro鈥檚 convictions
Meanwhile, the investigation and prosecution of Bolsonaro and his inner circle have .
Bolsonaro was in June 2023. That case dealt with a meeting before the 2022 elections in which he told foreign ambassadors that Brazil鈥檚 electronic voting system was subject to fraud and that the Supreme Court was prepared to favor Lula.
Due to that conviction, Bolsonaro, who is now 68 years old, cannot run for office for the next eight years.
In October 2023, Brazil鈥檚 Superior Electoral Court , this time for abusing political power during an independence day celebration.
As of February 2024, Brazil鈥檚 Federal Police are investigating the Bolsonaro administration鈥檚 and the alleged attempt of the results of the 2022 elections.
While such investigations could be perceived as political, Lula鈥檚 government has been somewhat insulated from such criticism because Brazil鈥檚 government can influence, but not control, its judiciary.
Moreover Lula has stressed the , presenting it as a .
Broad coalition
The that backed Lula鈥檚 presidential bid has grown since he took office. Two cabinet positions even went to .
Lula鈥檚 party, the Partido dos Trabalhadores, or Workers鈥� Party, holds only six of the 31 cabinet positions. And the president has had to exert his influence over his own party to keep dissenting voices within it at bay.
Lula鈥檚 willingness to work with Congress and his big tent approach to consensus-building starkly contrast with .
On Feb. 1, 2023, , who is president of Brazil鈥檚 lower house of Congress, were reelected. Lula chose to support their candidacies despite both men being allied with Bolsonaro in the 2022 election campaign.
Once the congressional term began, Lula was able to use his experience and personal relationships with lawmakers to build the majorities that now support his agenda.
Lula has , which provides 21 million families 鈥� more than a quarter of the population 鈥� with an average of R$670 reais (US$136) per month. Brazil has in real terms and is in ways that will help individual taxpayers and businesses.
Stability is a big plus
What makes the popularity and repositioning of Lula as a unity leader all the more remarkable is that the left-wing politican was himself seen as a divisive figure not too long ago. But Bolsonaro鈥檚 presidency changed the tenor of Brazilian politics.
Most Brazilians today appear to want to overcome the divisions Bolsonaro promoted and favor stability and predictable policies over seeing their own side dominate the government.
Lula鈥檚 popularity has also benefited from than many economists had expected.
at the end of 2023, less than half the . Gross domestic product . And , the .
The strong economy has helped boost Lula鈥檚 popularity because he has been able to assure centrists that he鈥檚 governing responsibly.
In politics, as with investing, past performance does not guarantee future returns. But for now, Lula鈥檚 pragmatic coalition-building and his careful negotiations with Congress are paying off.
, director of the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, Florida International University
This article is republished from under a Creative Commons license.
