Most of the world inside and outside Venezuela now agrees the country鈥檚 authoritarian socialist regime committed massive vote fraud last week.
But what鈥檚 not clear is whether that consensus can actually bring down the regime.
It seemed so in the early evening of Sunday, July 28, at polling sites like one in Barcelona, Venezuela 鈥� where locals erupted in ear-piercing screams of "隆尝颈产别谤迟补诲!鈥� or 鈥淔reedom!鈥� when it was announced that, at their precinct, opposition challenger Edmundo Gonz谩lez had defeated unpopular authoritarian President Nicol谩s Maduro by more than 30 percentage points.
As social media showed that day, celebrations like that one broke out at precincts all over Venezuela.
And understandably, say Maduro critics: over the past decade, he has presided not only over the implosion of Venezuela's once oil-rich economy 鈥� but the worst humanitarian crisis in modern South American history, which has forced almost a quarter of the population to flee the country.
As a result, and more important, opposition poll watchers, organized in thousands of voter activism cells called "comanditos," made it a point after the voting ended to get copies of those precinct vote tallies 鈥� they retrieved more than 80%, in fact 鈥� and then as quickly as possible to secure cyberspace.
That鈥檚 a big reason why 鈥� after Maduro鈥檚 subservient electoral authority tried to claim at around midnight on July 28 that he won the election 鈥� the opposition says it is now able to show Venezuelans and the international community that in fact Gonz谩lez trounced Maduro by millions of votes, winning at least 66%. The regime electoral authority, meanwhile, still refuses to transparently publish the official results.
READ MORE: Venezuela's massive diaspora can't vote 鈥� but it's still firing up voters
鈥淭his is what comes with organization, this comes with participation," says Maria Alejandra Marquez, a Venezuelan expat activist who is from Barcelona 鈥� and who helped organize volunteers in Miami on July 28 who received election reports from voters on the ground.
鈥淭he fact that we now have the information on the voting public, to be seen," Marquez told WLRN's South Florida Roundup last Friday, "is because of the incredible and brave work of Venezuelans who risked their lives to have the register of the voting in every polling site.鈥�
Marquez is not exaggerating the risks those opposition poll workers took. The Maduro regime鈥檚 security forces are now 鈥� and threatening to arrest both Gonz谩lez and the immensely popular opposition leader Mar铆a Corina Machado, whom Maduro barred from running against him.
Maduro says he's thwarting a "fascist coup" against him. But in reality he's punishing them for exposing what Latin American political experts like Eduardo Gamarra of Florida International University are calling one of the region鈥檚 worst-ever instances of election fraud.
鈥淏y far it is probably the most egregious case at least in the last 60 years," Gamarra told the South Florida Roundup. "It is just so brazen. And they鈥檙e cracking down now to round up a lot of people and put them in the worst prison camps in Venezuela.鈥�
"[Defense Minister] Padrino L贸pez might sacrifice Maduro if it meant keeping the military institution together 鈥� provided he gets an off-ramp."Brian Fonseca
Indeed, some 2,000 Venezuelans have already been locked up since July 28.
Even so, the U.S. and most other countries in the Americas and Europe 鈥� thanks to the efforts of those opposition poll workers 鈥� have concluded there is 鈥渙verwhelming evidence,鈥� as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, that Maduro did not win the election and Gonz谩lez did.
Most credible international election observer organizations, such as the Carter Center in Atlanta, have also so far rejected Maduro鈥檚 victory claim.
No cracks at the moment
鈥淲hat happened was a disaster for the Venezuelan regime," says Eduardo Repilloza, who directs the election observer nonprofit Transparencia Electoral in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
"The opposition preparation for this was so unprecedented 鈥� I really think it sets a global example. It certainly goes a long way to proving that these elections can be taken advantage of in authoritarian regimes to advance democratic objectives.鈥�
But if so, why hasn鈥檛 the election result that just about everyone now agrees on resulted in the democratic objective of removing Maduro and his dictatorial regime from power?
The answer is the same one ever since Maduro took power 11 years ago: the Venezuelan military.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 see any cracks in it at the moment,鈥� says Brian Fonseca, a Latin American military expert at FIU鈥檚 Gordon Institute for Public Policy.
Fonseca says until cracks form in the Venezuelan armed forces鈥� so-called 鈥渃oup-proof鈥� loyalty to Maduro, the regime will stay put. That鈥檚 especially true since, like Maduro, Defense Minister Gen. Vladimir Padrino L贸pez faces drug-trafficking charges in the U.S. 鈥� and fears going to prison if the regime falls.
Other factors keeping Venezuela's military at the regime's side are the fact that Maduro has put many of its leaders in charge of lucrative government ministries like oil and energy 鈥� Venezuela still possesses the world's largest crude reserves 鈥� and that allies like Cuba and Russia are lending their ruthless intelligence services to help Maduro detect any signs of betrayal.
Fonseca speculates that one reason Padrino鈥檚 support for Maduro might crack is if the military is forced to brutalize ordinary Venezuelans as Machado-led protests against the election fraud keep growing, a scenario that could fracture the army's officer corps as well as its rank-and-file. More than 20 Venezuelans have already been killed in demonstrations.
鈥淭here鈥檚 always a reluctance to deploy the military in the streets to combat civilians," Fonseca points out. "And so I think Padrino L贸pez would sacrifice Maduro if it meant keeping the military institution together.鈥�
But only, Fonseca adds, if the opposition, the U.S. and the international community can offer Padrino 鈥� who once trained at the U.S. military鈥檚 School of the Americas in Georgia 鈥� a deal that keeps him and his top brass, many of whom are also accused of criminal activity, out of prison afterward.
鈥淭his is all possible," Fonseca emphasizes, "providing that he has credible, convincing off ramps."
On Wednesday, the U.S. State Department's deputy assistant secretary for the western hemisphere, Mark Wells, told reporters he could not comment on whether the U.S. was engaged in any diplomatic dialogue of that nature.
Either way, right now it's looking like the only exit off Venezuela鈥檚 road to an even darker dictatorship.
Want more stories about the Americas? Sign up for WLRN鈥檚 Americas Report newsletter and we鈥檒l send a round up of the most important news and stories from the hemisphere, every Thursday morning.
