Scientists are looking at the latest advance in computer science 鈥� artificial intelligence to better predict mammoth hurricanes, raging wildfires and increased coastal flooding.
Professor Ben Kirtman at the University of Miami鈥檚 Rosenstiel school is leading the AI effort with three new federal grants totaling more than $3 million.
The grants are from the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and will be used to improve predictive analytics on three fronts.
AI is just one of the tools Kirtman plans to employ. 鈥淎rtificial intelligence is useful, but it鈥檚 not a panacea,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he reason is because a lot of these AI tools we develop 鈥� at least in the climate game 鈥� require a stationary climate.鈥�
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And the Earth鈥檚 climate is anything but stationary over time, he said. 鈥淭he AI part is particularly challenging.鈥�
Overall, the goal of the research is to improve computer models so that they better reflect the physics at play in the planet鈥檚 climate system.
A $750,000 grant will focus on coastal flooding in East Coast municipalities like Key Biscayne, aiming to give local communities long-term flood predictions that go beyond just anticipating hurricane storm surge.
By 2050, is projected to more than triple to reach a national average of as high as 85 flood days per year, according to NOAA. The Northeast, Southeast, and Gulf Coasts have experienced the largest historical increase in high tide flooding.
Kirtman says again the goal is to be able to predict more precisely such events. He sees his research changing the nightly news weather forecast.
UM researchers Emily Becker, Brian Soden and will join Kirkman鈥檚 team to look at coastal flooding.
McNoldy said little is known about predicting the severity of high tides besides their connection to the lunar cycle. Knowing more could help municipalities be better prepared for flooding events, he said.
鈥淚t could certainly help places look ahead more than we currently do,鈥� McNoldy said of the research. 鈥淚t can kind of give them a heads up.鈥�
Kirtman will see if they can better predict areas prone to wildfires so first-responders can be proactive rather than reactive. Kirtman was awarded $823,000 for this project.
He will be working with Rosenstiel alumna Sarah Larson 鈥� now a climate scientist at North Carolina State University 鈥� on studies on wildfires, as well as El Ni帽o.
Currently, there are a suite of different global climate models, each with their strengths and weaknesses, he explained.
鈥淲hat we鈥檙e doing as part of this project is we鈥檙e trying to bring all those models together, apply machine learning, or what鈥檚 called artificial intelligence, in order to produce a better forecast,鈥� he said.
Wildfires have been on the increase in the U.S. Between 2011 and 2020, about 7.5 million acres burned each year on average. That is twice as much as the 10-year-average of 2.7 million acres that was scorched by wildfires between 1983 and 1992.
What else can be learned about El Ni帽o?
The warmer sea surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, along with decreased air pressure, weakens trade winds. As a result, hurricane development is often curtailed 鈥� especially in the Gulf of Mexico. It can also affect how marine life migrates.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 have a good grasp at all about how far into the future we can predict. We think if we make a forecast in June for the following winter,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut we have a harder time if we make a forecast in February.鈥�
The research, funded by a $1.5 million NOAA grant, aims also to be able to better forecast the intensity of an El Ni帽o event.
鈥淵our weather forecast guy is going to say, 鈥榃ell, it looks like on Friday during high tide there鈥檚 a good chance you鈥檙e going to add six inches of water in these areas,鈥� Kirtman said.
