The boldest forecast in the history of the National Hurricane Center was made at 11 a.m. Aug. 26, 2021, when a newly formed tropical depression was predicted to rapidly intensify to near-major hurricane strength before reaching the marshy fringe of the Gulf Coast.
It was the first advisory for what would become Hurricane Ida, which deepened to a 150-mph Category 4 beast that walloped Louisiana on Aug. 29 and then maintained major hurricane muscle for eight hours after landfall.
Forecasting for rapid intensification — defined as a harrowing ascent in wind speeds of at least 35 mph in 24 hours — was nearly unheard of 10 years ago. But technology has given tropical meteorologists a more bullish confidence in predicting what traditionally has been a forecaster’s greatest nightmare.