Updated June 20, 2024 at 13:34 PM ET
SEOUL, South Korea 鈥� Foreign governments expressed concern about a treaty between Russia and North Korea that commits the two countries to providing military assistance to each other, if either of them is invaded.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un Wednesday, during Putin鈥檚 visit to Pyongyang.
The treaty upgrades the countries' relationship to a 鈥渃omprehensive strategic partnership.鈥� It specifies that if either side goes to war after being invaded, 鈥渢he other side shall provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay,鈥� according to a published Thursday by North Korean state media.
鈥淔or all intents and purposes, this is an alliance pact,鈥� says , a political scientist at Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, Russia. 鈥淚t might mean that Russia and North Korea would fight in each other's military conflicts.鈥�
Lukin argues that it鈥檚 no accident that the treaty uses similar language to a between the Soviet Union and North Korea. 鈥淚 think it was done in order to show that Moscow and Kim Jong [Un] are, again, political and military allies like during the Cold War,鈥� he says.
The treaty adds to the 1961 pact several preconditions for providing military assistance. The aid must be in line with Russian and North Korean national laws and of the United Nations Charter, which affirms the right of individual or collective self-defense for member nations under attack.
Whatever obligations and preconditions the treaty contains, experts note, they key factor will be how the two nations decide to interpret and implement the pact.
North Korea is already accused of to use in its , in exchange for food, fuel and . Both countries publicly deny such a swap, but the treaty could serve to justify it, and embolden them to do even more.
Putin and Kim 鈥渟eem ready to ramp up the stakes and take risks,鈥� says Lukin. 鈥淚 would say that nothing is off the table.鈥�
For example, if Pyongyang and Moscow agree on it, 鈥渋t's possible that the North Korean military may dispatch soldiers to fight battles鈥� for Russia in Ukraine, recruit volunteers or send 鈥渕ercenaries to earn foreign currency,鈥� says , a researcher at Seoul National University鈥檚 Institute for Peace and Unification Studies.
Or, if the war in Ukraine goes badly for Russia, Chang says, it鈥檚 conceivable for North Korea to launch a military provocation 鈥渢o open a second front in Northeast Asia to distract the military power and attention of the U.S. and the West.鈥�
As for North Korea, they already have an nuclear warheads, and Lukin and other experts believe Russia is unwilling to share high-level nuclear and military technology.
鈥淭he problem is that even secondary technologies can significantly improve North Korea's weapons development,鈥� Chang notes. 鈥淎nd the impact on military balance on the Korean Peninsula can be huge.鈥�
The treaty also says that Russia and North Korea will oppose 鈥渦nilateral compulsory measures,鈥� a reference to international sanctions against both countries 鈥� and missile programs, and of Ukraine.
Russia used to against North Korea. But more recently, Moscow has blocked U.N. Security Council efforts to tighten sanctions on Pyongyang, and in March, the extension of a mandate for a UN panel that monitors implementation of UN sanctions on North Korea.
In an article published by North Korea鈥檚 Rodong Sinmun newspaper, and on the , Putin wrote, 鈥渨e will develop alternative trade and mutual settlements mechanisms not controlled by the West.鈥�
This could be a throwback to a Cold War-era financial settlement system, says Hong Min, a North Korea expert at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a Seoul-based government think tank.
鈥淚f, for example, North Korea provides weapons,鈥� he says, 鈥渢he value of those provisions will be converted to a ruble amount, and North Korea would be paid back in kind, like with food. Essentially, this a barter system that assessed value in rubles."
Japan expressed grave concern about the pact, while NATO Secretary-General that the agreement showed authoritarian powers were aligning.
South Korea , and said it would reconsider its policy of refraining from sending arms directly to Ukraine, instead of of U.S. and Polish munitions.
China, which has been North Korea鈥檚 only real ally since the end of the Cold War, to the Putin-Kim summit, calling it a bilateral matter.
While Putin and Kim met in Pyongyang, Chinese diplomats and military officials were holding . This followed a with the leaders of Japan and South Korea, as China tried to stabilize ties with its neighbors, despite rivalry with their ally, the U.S.
Some experts see the Putin-Kim summit as a comparatively bigger win for Kim.
鈥淧utin's focus is on building a system for securing the military assistance Russia urgently needs right now,鈥� says Hong Min, 鈥渨hereas North Korea is focused on showing off their alliance as much as possible.鈥�
鈥淔rom North Korea鈥檚 point of view,鈥� adds Chang Yong Seok, 鈥渢hey鈥檙e being treated as a global actor, albeit as Russia鈥檚 junior partner.鈥�
鈥淭hat鈥檚 a huge political and diplomatic achievement,鈥� he adds, 鈥渁nd it may be the kind of outcome Kim Jong Un wanted the most and finds very satisfying.鈥�
On Thursday, Putin went on to , where he signed at least a dozen deals with the country in another step to bolster Russia's relations in Asia.
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