Tropical Storm Francine was officially named on Monday at 11 a.m. ET by the National Hurricane Center. This is the sixth named system of the season it is forecast to make landfall in the United States, specifically in Louisiana either late Wednesday night or very early Thursday morning, as a hurricane. If the forecast verifies, this will be the fourth hurricane this season, and the third hurricane that makes landfall in the United States this year.
The Upper Coast of Texas and Louisiana will start to experience deteriorating weather conditions starting Late Tuesday into Wednesday. The biggest threat will be storm surge and winds. Flash flooding is also a risk as there could be some places receiving up to 12 inches of rain. Storm surge will range between 5 and 8 feet. Winds will be at least 75 mph, sustained at landfall. Most intensity models show Francine making landfall as a strong hurricane one or category two hurricane. Keep in mind that Francine will be traveling over a very warm patch of warm waters and intensity models are far less accurate than track models.
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What will be the impacts for Florida?
The current instability over Florida has nothing to do with Francine. The higher-than-normal rain and storm activity is due to a stationary front that has set up camp over Central Florida and continues to increase the flood risk, especially for Central and North Florida. South Florida enjoyed mostly stable days over the weekend, but the inland storms returned today as there is more moisture coming in from the south.
The high-pressure system in the middle levels of the atmosphere will keep protecting Florida from tropical systems, in this case from Francine, as the system will travel over the outside periphery of the high while it is a tropical system, but once the system moves over land, its moisture will be splattered over northern Florida by the end of the week. in the short term, if there are any changes to the track, and Francine makes landfall more east, the western part of the Panhandle could experience more surge and winds by early Thursday morning.
Timing of rain, surge and wind
For the western portion of Florida's Panhandle Francine's rain will arrive very early on Wednesday and continue, strong at times through through late Thursday. The storm surge will be the highest during the high tide times on Wednesday as Francine nears the Louisiana coast. There are currently no storm surge watches or warnings in effect for the Florida Panhandle, but this might change if the storm gets stronger and especially if the track shifts more east.
